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Year 2023, Volume: 52 Issue: 1, 268 - 276, 15.02.2023

Sedat Çapar Hanife Taylan Selamlar İdil Yavuz Ali Sabri Taylan Güçkan Yapar

Abstract

References

  • [1] B. Cetin and I. Yavuz, Comparison of forecast accuracy of Ata and exponential smoothing, J. Appl. Stat. 48 (13-15), 2580-2590 , 2020.
  • [2] R.J. Hyndman, A brief history of forecasting competitions, Int. J. Forecast. 36 (1), 7-14, 2020.
  • [3] R.J. Hyndman and B. Billah, Unmasking the Theta method, Int. J. Forecast. 19 (2), 287-290, 2003.
  • [4] S. Makridakis, E. Spiliotis and V. Assimakopoulos, The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods, Int. J. Forecast. 36 (3), 54-74, 2020.
  • [5] S. Makridakis, E. Spiliotis and V. Assimakopoulos, The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward, Int. J. Forecast. 34 (4), 802-808, 2018.
  • [6] S. Makridakis and M. Hibon, The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications, Int. J. Forecast. 16 (4), 451-476, 2000.
  • [7] S. Makridakis, Mcompetitions, Mcompetitions/M4-methods: Data, benchmarks, and methods submitted to the M4 forecasting competition, https://github.com/M4Competition/M4-methods
  • [8] J.M. Merigo and M. Jose, Measuring Errors with the OWA Operator, Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing 115, 24-33, 2012.
  • [9] G. Yapar, H. Selamlar, S. Capar and I. Yavuz, ATA method, Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 48 (6), 1838-1844, 2019.
  • [10] G. Yapar Modified simple exponential smoothing, Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 47 (3), 741-754, 2018.
  • [11] G. Yapar, S. Capar, H. Selamlar and I. Yavuz, Modified Holt’s linear trend method, Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 47 (5), 1394-1403, 2018.

Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition

Year 2023, Volume: 52 Issue: 1, 268 - 276, 15.02.2023

Sedat Çapar Hanife Taylan Selamlar İdil Yavuz Ali Sabri Taylan Güçkan Yapar

Abstract

Like the previous M competitions, M4 competition resulted in great contributions to the field of forecasting. Ata method which is a new forecasting method alternative to exponential smoothing, competed in this competition with five different models. The results obtained from these five models are discussed in detail in this paper. According to various error metrics, the models perform better than their exponential smoothing based counters. Despite their simplicity, they are ranked satisfactorily high compared to the other methods. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of simple combinations of these Ata models and ARIMA are given for the M4 competition data set. The combinations work significantly better than models that are much more complex. Therefore, besides the fact that Ata models perform well alone, Ata should be considered as a candidate for being included in combinations of forecasts.

Keywords

Exponential smoothing forecasting M4-competition time series

References

  • [1] B. Cetin and I. Yavuz, Comparison of forecast accuracy of Ata and exponential smoothing, J. Appl. Stat. 48 (13-15), 2580-2590 , 2020.
  • [2] R.J. Hyndman, A brief history of forecasting competitions, Int. J. Forecast. 36 (1), 7-14, 2020.
  • [3] R.J. Hyndman and B. Billah, Unmasking the Theta method, Int. J. Forecast. 19 (2), 287-290, 2003.
  • [4] S. Makridakis, E. Spiliotis and V. Assimakopoulos, The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods, Int. J. Forecast. 36 (3), 54-74, 2020.
  • [5] S. Makridakis, E. Spiliotis and V. Assimakopoulos, The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward, Int. J. Forecast. 34 (4), 802-808, 2018.
  • [6] S. Makridakis and M. Hibon, The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications, Int. J. Forecast. 16 (4), 451-476, 2000.
  • [7] S. Makridakis, Mcompetitions, Mcompetitions/M4-methods: Data, benchmarks, and methods submitted to the M4 forecasting competition, https://github.com/M4Competition/M4-methods
  • [8] J.M. Merigo and M. Jose, Measuring Errors with the OWA Operator, Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing 115, 24-33, 2012.
  • [9] G. Yapar, H. Selamlar, S. Capar and I. Yavuz, ATA method, Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 48 (6), 1838-1844, 2019.
  • [10] G. Yapar Modified simple exponential smoothing, Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 47 (3), 741-754, 2018.
  • [11] G. Yapar, S. Capar, H. Selamlar and I. Yavuz, Modified Holt’s linear trend method, Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 47 (5), 1394-1403, 2018.
There are 11 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Statistics
Journal Section Statistics
Authors

Sedat Çapar 0000-0003-4741-4908

Hanife Taylan Selamlar 0000-0002-4091-884X

İdil Yavuz 0000-0003-2163-1066

Ali Sabri Taylan This is me 0000-0001-9514-934X

Güçkan Yapar 0000-0002-0971-6676

Publication Date February 15, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 52 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Çapar, S., Taylan Selamlar, H., Yavuz, İ., Taylan, A. S., et al. (2023). Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 52(1), 268-276. https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.1018362
AMA Çapar S, Taylan Selamlar H, Yavuz İ, Taylan AS, Yapar G. Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. February 2023;52(1):268-276. doi:10.15672/hujms.1018362
Chicago Çapar, Sedat, Hanife Taylan Selamlar, İdil Yavuz, Ali Sabri Taylan, and Güçkan Yapar. “Ata method’s Performance in the M4 Competition”. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 52, no. 1 (February 2023): 268-76. https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.1018362.
EndNote Çapar S, Taylan Selamlar H, Yavuz İ, Taylan AS, Yapar G (February 1, 2023) Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 52 1 268–276.
IEEE S. Çapar, H. Taylan Selamlar, İ. Yavuz, A. S. Taylan, and G. Yapar, “Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition”, Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 268–276, 2023, doi: 10.15672/hujms.1018362.
ISNAD Çapar, Sedat et al. “Ata method’s Performance in the M4 Competition”. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 52/1 (February 2023), 268-276. https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.1018362.
JAMA Çapar S, Taylan Selamlar H, Yavuz İ, Taylan AS, Yapar G. Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 2023;52:268–276.
MLA Çapar, Sedat et al. “Ata method’s Performance in the M4 Competition”. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 52, no. 1, 2023, pp. 268-76, doi:10.15672/hujms.1018362.
Vancouver Çapar S, Taylan Selamlar H, Yavuz İ, Taylan AS, Yapar G. Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. 2023;52(1):268-76.

https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/hujms